The $150,000 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct has never been a strong predictor of Derby wins. I do not believe this year will be an exception. Courvoisier (named for the cognac) took the one-turn mile on a sloppy sealed track by 1 1/2 lengths over the late closing Smarten Up. Trained by Kelly Breen and piloted by Jose Ortiz, the regally bred son of Tapit is out of Eclipse Award winner Take Charge Brandi. The win in the Jerome was his fifth start. It took him four starts to break maiden, so it is safe to say he is progressing slowly. The favorite, Cookes Creek, had to settle for third. Courvoisier received a mediocre 73 Beyer for the effort. Ho hum. 

 

A bit later in Arkansas, trainer Kenny McPeek added his third runner to the list of colts in contention for a start on the first Saturday in May. Dash Attack came flying down the lane over a sloppy track to take the $250,000 Smarty Jones by two lengths. He ran the one-turn mile in 1:39.44 and received and 82 Beyer for his late-striding effort. Jockey David Cohen said he had to move on him a bit earlier than he had hoped, but Dash Attack answered the call with fervor. The three-year-old son of Munnings will need to answer the distance question for skeptics in the racing world before being considered a serious contender. Munnings is not known for producing many successful runners at more than a mile. But this colt looked the part on Saturday in only his second start.  Hmmm.

 

And now…the rest of the story. About an hour after the Arkansas race,  Newgrange, a good-looking three-year-old son of Violence, took the Grade III $100,000 Sham at Santa Anita with an impressive 2 3/4 length win over his stablemate, Rockefeller.  He earned an 88 Beyer for the effort by wiring the field at the two-turn mile distance. And, like Dash Attack, this was only his second start. So ten Kentucky Derby points to Newgrange and four points to Rockefeller, right? Wrong!! You see, both are trained by Bob Baffert and he is currently ineligible for Kentucky Derby qualifying points. What are these owners thinking? I believe I know. I believe both Baffert and his owners have it on good authority that Churchill Downs plans to lift the ban on qualifiers and shorten Baffert’s suspension from running at the track for two years. If not, these owne should have their horses on a van to another barn right now!

 

Baffert is no stranger to the winner’s circle in the Sham. He has won the race named for the 1973 Kentucky Derby runner-up a record eight times, including four of the last five. Life is Good won the race for Baffert last year; and,  his stablemate, Medina Spirit, was a very respectable second. Run free, fly high, and rest easy little fella. You had the biggest heart. 

 

If Newgrange stays healthy (and alive), I believe he will be a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. Jockey John Velasquez said he ran green, which is absolutely normal in the second out. But, the Hall-of-Famer also said he feels Newgrange has more in the tank. Two wins in two starts. A graded stakes in the second out at two turns. Still learning and has not given all he’s got. Check. Check. Check. This horse has got superstar written all over him. 

 

If there is a trainer change, I will update. If not, expect to see Bob Baffert in the Kentucky Derby.